English

The Plausibility Trap: Using Probabilistic Engines for Deterministic Tasks

Artificial Intelligence 2026-01-22 v1 Computation and Language

Abstract

The ubiquity of Large Language Models (LLMs) is driving a paradigm shift where user convenience supersedes computational efficiency. This article defines the "Plausibility Trap": a phenomenon where individuals with access to Artificial Intelligence (AI) models deploy expensive probabilistic engines for simple deterministic tasks-such as Optical Character Recognition (OCR) or basic verification-resulting in significant resource waste. Through micro-benchmarks and case studies on OCR and fact-checking, we quantify the "efficiency tax"-demonstrating a ~6.5x latency penalty-and the risks of algorithmic sycophancy. To counter this, we introduce Tool Selection Engineering and the Deterministic-Probabilistic Decision Matrix, a framework to help developers determine when to use Generative AI and, crucially, when to avoid it. We argue for a curriculum shift, emphasizing that true digital literacy relies not only in knowing how to use Generative AI, but also on knowing when not to use it.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2601.15130,
  title  = {The Plausibility Trap: Using Probabilistic Engines for Deterministic Tasks},
  author = {Ivan Carrera and Daniel Maldonado-Ruiz},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.15130},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T09:14:24.068Z