The MillenniumTNG Project: Semi-analytic galaxy formation models on the past lightcone

Upcoming large galaxy surveys will subject the standard cosmological model, $\Lambda$CDM, to new precision tests. These can be tightened considerably if theoretical models of galaxy formation are available that can predict galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing on the full range of measurable scales throughout volumes as large as those of the surveys and with sufficient flexibility that uncertain aspects of the underlying astrophysics can be marginalised over. This, in particular, requires mock galaxy catalogues in large cosmological volumes that can be directly compared to observation, and can be optimised empirically by Monte Carlo Markov Chains or other similar schemes to eliminate or estimate astrophysical parameters related to galaxy formation when constraining cosmology. Semi-analytic galaxy formation methods implemented on top of cosmological dark matter simulations offer a computationally efficient approach to construct physically based and flexibly parametrised galaxy formation models, and as such they are more potent than still faster, but purely empirical models. Here we introduce an updated methodology for the semi-analytic L-GALAXIES code, allowing it to be applied to simulations of the new MillenniumTNG project, producing galaxies directly on fully continuous past lightcones, potentially over the full sky, out to high redshift, and for all galaxies more massive than $\sim 10^8\,{\rm M}_\odot$. We investigate the numerical convergence of the resulting predictions, and study the projected galaxy clustering signals of different samples. The new methodology can be viewed as an important step towards more faithful forward-modelling of observational data, helping to reduce systematic distortions in the comparison of theory to observations.