The Enumeration of Prudent Polygons by Area and its Unusual Asymptotics

Prudent walks are special self-avoiding walks that never take a step towards an already occupied site, and \emph{$k$-sided prudent walks} (with $k=1,2,3,4$) are, in essence, only allowed to grow along $k$ directions. Prudent polygons are prudent walks that return to a point adjacent to their starting point. Prudent walks and polygons have been previously enumerated by length and perimeter (Bousquet-M\'elou, Schwerdtfeger; 2010). We consider the enumeration of \emph{prudent polygons} by \emph{area}. For the 3-sided variety, we find that the generating function is expressed in terms of a $q$-hypergeometric function, with an accumulation of poles towards the dominant singularity. This expression reveals an unusual asymptotic structure of the number of polygons of area $n$, where the critical exponent is the transcendental number $\log_23$ and and the amplitude involves tiny oscillations. Based on numerical data, we also expect similar phenomena to occur for 4-sided polygons. The asymptotic methodology involves an original combination of Mellin transform techniques and singularity analysis, which is of potential interest in a number of other asymptotic enumeration problems.