English

The effect of dispersal area on the extinction threshold

Populations and Evolution 2026-01-05 v1

Abstract

The survival of populations hinges on their ability to offset local extinctions through new colonizations. The dispersal area (AA) plays a crucial role in this process, as it determines the probability of finding colonizable vacant sites. We investigated the spatial colonization-extinction dynamics in a lattice model (a contact process), exploring various finite dispersal areas and estimating the extinction threshold λE(A)\lambda_E(A). Our results revealed a consistent λE(A)\lambda_E(A) relationship, largely independent of lattice geometry (except for the smallest AA). This λE(A)\lambda_E(A) relationship obeyed universal scaling laws within two broad ranges of AA. The scaling relations suggest considerable selection upon the increase of dispersal area, particularly at low AA values. We discuss these findings in the broader context of the evolution of dispersal area.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2512.22506,
  title  = {The effect of dispersal area on the extinction threshold},
  author = {Róbert Juhász and Igor D. Kovács and Beáta Oborny},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.22506},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

32 pages, 8 figures, accepted in Ecological Modelling