English

The Critical Beta-splitting Random Tree II: Overview and Open Problems

Probability 2025-04-21 v3 Combinatorics Populations and Evolution

Abstract

In the critical beta-splitting model of a random nn-leaf rooted tree, clades are recursively (from the root) split into sub-clades, and a clade of mm leaves is split into sub-clades containing ii and mim-i leaves with probabilities 1/(i(mi))\propto 1/(i(m-i)). Study of structure theory and explicit quantitative aspects of this model (in discrete or continuous versions) is an active research topic. For many results there are different proofs, probabilistic or analytic, so the model provides a testbed for a ``compare and contrast" discussion of techniques. This article provides an overview of results proved in the sequence of similarly-titled articles I, III, IV and related articles. We mostly do not repeat proofs given elsewhere: instead we seek to paint a ``Big Picture" via graphics and heuristics, and emphasize open problems. Our discussion is centered around three categories of results. (i) There is a CLT for leaf heights, and the analytic proofs can be extended to provide surprisingly precise analysis of other height-related aspects. (ii) There is an explicit description of the limit {\em fringe distribution} relative to a random leaf, whose graphical representation is essentially the format of the cladogram representation of biological phylogenies. (iii) There is a canonical embedding of the discrete model into a continuous-time model, that is a random tree CTCS(n) on nn leaves with real-valued edge lengths, and this model turns out more convenient to study. The family (CTCS(n), n \ge 2) is consistent under a ``delete random leaf and prune" operation. That leads to an explicit inductive construction of (CTCS(n), n \ge 2) as nn increases, and then to a limit structure CTCS(\infty) formalized via exchangeable partitions. Many open problems remain, in particular to elucidate a relation between CTCS(\infty) and the β(2,1)\beta(2,1) coalescent.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2303.02529,
  title  = {The Critical Beta-splitting Random Tree II: Overview and Open Problems},
  author = {David J. Aldous and Svante Janson},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.02529},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Expansion and revision of version 2 to give current overview of active topic, complementing and partly overlapping technical journal articles arXiv:2302.05066 and arXiv:2412.09655 and arXiv:2412.12319. Not intended for journal publication in this format

R2 v1 2026-06-28T09:01:39.101Z