Temptation: Immediacy and certainty
Abstract
Is an option especially tempting when it is both immediate and certain? I test the effect of risk on the present-bias factor given quasi-hyperbolic discounting. In my experiment workers allocate about thirty to fifty minutes of real-effort tasks between two weeks. I study dynamic consistency by comparing choices made two days in advance of the workday with choices made when work is imminent. My novel design permits estimation of present bias using a decision with a consequence that is both immediate and certain. I find greater present bias when the consequence is certain. This finding has implications for any economic decision involving a present-biased decision-maker, including labor contracting and consumer good pricing. I offer a methodological remedy for experimental economists.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2407.14955,
title = {Temptation: Immediacy and certainty},
author = {J. Lucas Reddinger},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.14955},
year = {2024}
}
Comments
The manuscript includes 26 pages with 2 tables and 3 figures; the supplement includes 20 pages with 5 tables and 15 figures. This revision makes minor changes to notation for clarity