English

Technique-agnostic exoplanet demography for the Roman era -- I. Testing a demography retrieval framework using simulated Kepler-like transit datasets

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics 2026-04-21 v2 Astrophysics of Galaxies Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Abstract

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will unveil for the first time the full architecture of planetary systems across Galactic distances through the discovery of up to 200,000 cool and hot exoplanets using microlensing and transit detection methods. Roman's huge exoplanet haul, and Galactic reach, will require new methods to leverage the full exoplanet demographic content of the combined microlensing and transit samples, given the different sensitivity bias of the techniques to planet and host properties and Galactic location. We present a framework for technique-agnostic exoplanet demography (TAED) that can allow large, multi-technique exoplanet samples distributed over Galactic distance scales to be combined for demographic studies. Our TAED forward modelling and retrieval framework uses parameterised model exoplanet demographic distributions to embed planetary systems within a stellar population synthesis model of the Galaxy, enabling internally consistent forecasts to be made for all detection methods that are based on spatio-kinematic system properties. In this paper, as a first test of the TAED framework, we apply it to simulated transit datasets based on the Kepler Data Release 25 to assess parameter recovery accuracy and method scalability for a single large homogeneous dataset. We find that optimisation using differential evolution provides a computationally scalable framework that gives a good balance between computational efficiency and accuracy of parameter recovery.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2509.24401,
  title  = {Technique-agnostic exoplanet demography for the Roman era -- I. Testing a demography retrieval framework using simulated Kepler-like transit datasets},
  author = {Akshay Priyadarshi and Eamonn Kerins and Michael D. Albrow and Jay Anderson and Etienne Bachelet and Chas Beichman and David P. Bennett and Aparna Bhattacharya and Valerio Bozza and Chris Brandon and Sebastiano Calchi Novati and Kylee Carden and Sean Carey and Jessie Christiansen and Ali Crisp and William DeRocco and Scott Gaudi and Jon Hulberg and Macy J. Huston and Stela Ishitani Silva and Somayeh Khakpash and Katarzyna Kruszyńska and Amber Malpas and Arjun Murlidhar and Casey Lam and Xavier Lesley-Saldaña and Jessica R. Lu and Greg Olmschenk and Matthew Penny and Keivan G. Stassun and Alexander P. Stephan and Rachel A. Street and Takahiro Sumi and Sean K. Terry and Himanshu Verma and Weicheng Zang and Farzaneh Zohrabi and Alison Duck and Nestor Espinoza and Kelsey Hoffman and Jorge Martinez-Palomera and Susan Mullally and Elisa Quintana and Robert Wilson},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.24401},
  year   = {2026}
}