Sums of squares, Hankel index, and almost real rank

The Hankel index of a real variety $X$ is an invariant that quantifies the difference between nonnegative quadrics and sums of squares on $X$. In [5], the authors proved an intriguing bound on the Hankel index in terms of the Green-Lazarsfeld index, which measures the "linearity" of the minimal free resolution of the ideal of $X$. In all previously known cases this bound was tight. We provide the first class of examples where the bound is not tight; in fact the difference between Hankel index and Green-Lazarsfeld index can be arbitrarily large. Our examples are outer projections of rational normal curves, where we identify the center of projection with a binary form $F$. The Green-Lazarsfeld index of the projected curve is given by the complex Waring border rank of $F$ [15]. We show that the Hankel index is given by the "almost real" rank of $F$, which is a new notion that comes from decomposing $F$ as a sum of powers of almost real forms. We determine the range of possible and typical almost real ranks for binary forms.