Structure of 2-step nilpotent ergodic averages for distinct-degree polynomials

We investigate manifestations of the Nilpotent Heuristic, which posits that recurrence and convergence phenomena known for measure-preserving $\mathbb{Z}^D$-systems extend to nilpotent group actions. Our main results establish seminorm estimates and limiting formulas for multiple ergodic averages arising from actions of 2-step nilpotent groups. In particular, if $T_1,\ldots,T_\ell$ are totally ergodic and generate a 2-step nilpotent group, then $$\lim_{N\to\infty}\frac{1}{N}\sum_{n=1}^N T_1^n f_1 \cdots T_\ell^{n^\ell}f_\ell = \prod_{j=1}^{\ell}\int f_j\,d\mu$$ in the $L^{2}$ norm for all bounded functions $f_{1},\dots,f_{\ell}$; the same holds for any distinct-degree polynomial iterates. We also obtain popular-common-difference versions of the polynomial Szeme\'edi theorem in the same setting. In a different direction, our approach allows us to completely resolve the joint ergodicity conjecture for multidimensional polynomials and $\mathbb Z^D$-systems; we also present an example showing that, surprisingly enough, the 2-step nilpotent analog fails. We conclude with many open problems concerning joint ergodicity, seminorm estimates, and the structure theory of nilpotent systems.