Statistical study of the transcript of vote counts in multi-member constituencies: Identifying electoral fraud and reconstructing voting returns
Abstract
We propose new methods of electoral statistics. With their help, we study transcripts of vote counting in municipal elections. We construct and apply effective statistical tests to detect the ballot stuffing at the level of individual candidates and ballots as a whole. We study the difference between falsifications for the administration and against the opposition. We construct indicators assessing the credibility of transcripts as a whole. We propose a model of voter behavior to reconstruct the results of multi-member voting at the level of an individual precinct. We carry out an independent verification of the reconstruction.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2509.00118,
title = {Statistical study of the transcript of vote counts in multi-member constituencies: Identifying electoral fraud and reconstructing voting returns},
author = {Andrey V. Podlazov and Vadim Makarov},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.00118},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
Noted a limitation of our reconstruction model that (in this particular case) underestimates votes for the opposition. The model assumption that the sum of political orientations of the candidates is zero does not hold in practice, precluding an accurate reconstruction. The rest of the manuscript is unaffected. In Russian. 34 pages, in Russian language, 5 figures, 12 tables