Statistical process control via $p$-values
Abstract
We study statistical process control (SPC) through charting of -values. When in control (IC), any valid sequence is super-uniform, a requirement that can hold in nonparametric and two-phase designs without parametric modelling of the monitored process. Within this framework, we analyse the Shewhart rule that signals when . Under super-uniformity alone, and with no assumptions on temporal dependence, we derive universal IC lower bounds for the average run length (ARL) and for the expected time to the th false alarm (-ARL). When conditional super-uniformity holds, these bounds sharpen to the familiar and rates, giving simple, distribution-free calibration for -value charts. Beyond thresholding, we use merging functions for dependent -values to build EWMA-like schemes that output, at each time , a valid -value for the hypothesis that the process has remained IC up to , enabling smoothing without ad hoc control limits. We also study uniform EWMA processes, giving explicit distribution formulas and left-tail guarantees. Finally, we propose a modular approach to directional and coordinate localisation in multivariate SPC via closed testing, controlling the family-wise error rate at the time of alarm. Numerical examples illustrate the utility and variety of our approach.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2601.17319,
title = {Statistical process control via $p$-values},
author = {Hien Duy Nguyen and Dan Wang},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.17319},
year = {2026}
}