English

Statistical process control via $p$-values

Methodology 2026-01-27 v1

Abstract

We study statistical process control (SPC) through charting of pp-values. When in control (IC), any valid sequence (Pt)t(P_{t})_{t} is super-uniform, a requirement that can hold in nonparametric and two-phase designs without parametric modelling of the monitored process. Within this framework, we analyse the Shewhart rule that signals when PtαP_{t}\le\alpha. Under super-uniformity alone, and with no assumptions on temporal dependence, we derive universal IC lower bounds for the average run length (ARL) and for the expected time to the kkth false alarm (kk-ARL). When conditional super-uniformity holds, these bounds sharpen to the familiar α1\alpha^{-1} and kα1k\alpha^{-1} rates, giving simple, distribution-free calibration for pp-value charts. Beyond thresholding, we use merging functions for dependent pp-values to build EWMA-like schemes that output, at each time tt, a valid pp-value for the hypothesis that the process has remained IC up to tt, enabling smoothing without ad hoc control limits. We also study uniform EWMA processes, giving explicit distribution formulas and left-tail guarantees. Finally, we propose a modular approach to directional and coordinate localisation in multivariate SPC via closed testing, controlling the family-wise error rate at the time of alarm. Numerical examples illustrate the utility and variety of our approach.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2601.17319,
  title  = {Statistical process control via $p$-values},
  author = {Hien Duy Nguyen and Dan Wang},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.17319},
  year   = {2026}
}