English

Speed is Confidence

Machine Learning 2026-01-30 v2

Abstract

Biological neural systems must be fast but are energy-constrained. Evolution's solution: act on the first signal. Winner-take-all circuits and time-to-first-spike coding implicitly treat when a neuron fires as an expression of confidence. We apply this principle to ensembles of Tiny Recursive Models (TRM) [Jolicoeur-Martineau et al., 2025]. On Sudoku-Extreme, halt-first selection achieves 97% accuracy vs. 91% for probability averaging -- while requiring 10x fewer reasoning steps. A single baseline model achieves 85.5% +/- 1.3%. Can we internalize this as a training-only cost? Yes: by maintaining K=4 parallel latent states but backpropping only through the lowest-loss "winner," we achieve 96.9% +/- 0.6% accuracy -- matching ensemble performance at 1x inference cost, with less than half the variance of the baseline. A key diagnostic: 89% of baseline failures are selection problems, revealing a 99% accuracy ceiling. As in nature, this work was also resource constrained: all experiments used a single RTX 5090. A modified SwiGLU [Shazeer, 2020] made Muon [Jordan et al., 2024] and high LR viable, enabling baseline training in 48 minutes and full WTA (K=4) in 6 hours on consumer hardware.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2601.19085,
  title  = {Speed is Confidence},
  author = {Joshua V. Dillon},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.19085},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T09:21:27.844Z