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Set-valued conditional functionals of random sets

Probability 2026-04-08 v1 Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

Many key quantities in statistics and probability theory such as the expectation, quantiles, expectiles and many risk measures are law-determined maps from a space of random variables to the reals. We call such a law-determined map, which is normalised, positively homogeneous, monotone and translation equivariant, a gauge function. Considered as a functional on the space of distributions, we can apply such a gauge to the conditional distribution of a random variable. This results in conditional gauges, such as conditional quantiles or conditional expectations. In this paper, we apply such scalar gauges to the support function of a random closed convex set \bX\bX. This leads to a set-valued extension of a gauge function. We also introduce a conditional variant whose values are themselves random closed convex sets. In special cases, this functional becomes the conditional set-valued quantile or the conditional set-valued expectation of a random set. In particular, in the unconditional setup, if \bX\bX is a random translation of a deterministic cone and the gauge is either a quantile or an expectile, we recover the cone distribution functions studied by Andreas Hamel and his co-authors. In the conditional setup, the conditional quantile of a random singleton yields the conditional version of the half-space depth-trimmed regions.

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Cite

@article{arxiv.2504.13620,
  title  = {Set-valued conditional functionals of random sets},
  author = {Tobias Fissler and Ilya Molchanov},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.13620},
  year   = {2026}
}

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30 pages