English

Selection Mechanisms, Stationary Distributions, and Reversibility in Multiallelic Moran Models

Populations and Evolution 2026-07-07 v1

Abstract

The Moran process with selection and recurrent mutation is a classical model in population genetics, yet how the placement of selection within the update rule shapes the stationary distribution has received little attention. We study a finite, well-mixed haploid population of constant size nn with mm labeled alleles, parent-independent mutation, and allele-specific fitnesses. Within this common framework we compare three Moran update kernels that differ only in the stage at which selection acts: during reproduction, when the offspring copies one of two sampled parents (Scheme~I); through fitness-biased mate choice, followed by neutral copying (Scheme~II); and at death, so that fitter individuals are less likely to be replaced (Scheme~III). Although all three favor fitter alleles, they define different Markov chains. For two alleles, each scheme reduces to a birth-death chain and admits an exact stationary law, but the three laws differ. For m3m\ge 3, the placement of selection becomes decisive: Schemes~I and~II are generally nonreversible when fitnesses are unequal, so no detailed-balance product form exists, whereas Scheme~III remains reversible for every mm and has a closed stationary distribution -- a Dirichlet-multinomial core modified by an explicit fitness factor. We further show that all three mechanisms can act simultaneously in the two-allele case without losing exact solvability, and we derive weak-selection expansions that make explicit how small fitness differences tilt the neutral beta-binomial and Dirichlet-multinomial benchmarks. Together, these results clarify when neutral stationary structure survives the introduction of selection and when multiallelic Moran dynamics become genuinely nonreversible

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2607.06732,
  title  = {Selection Mechanisms, Stationary Distributions, and Reversibility in Multiallelic Moran Models},
  author = {Dan Braha and Marcus A M de Aguiar},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.06732},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

55 pages, 2 figures