English

ScoringBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Tabular Foundation Models with Proper Scoring Rules

Artificial Intelligence 2026-05-05 v3

Abstract

Tabular foundation models such as TabPFN and TabICL already produce full predictive distributions, yet prevailing regression benchmarks evaluate them almost exclusively via point-estimate metrics (RMSE, R2R^2). This discards precisely the distributional information these models are designed to provide - a critical gap for high-stakes domains where not all kinds of errors are equally costly. We introduce ScoringBench, an open and extensible benchmark that evaluates tabular regression models under a comprehensive suite of proper scoring rules - including CRPS, CRLS, interval score, energy score, and weighted CRPS - alongside standard point metrics. ScoringBench covers 97 regression datasets from diverse domains, supports transparent community contributions via a git-based leaderboard, and provides two complementary ranking protocols: an ordinal Demsar/autorank approach and a magnitude-preserving z-score ranking approach. Evaluating several models - spanning in-context learners, fine-tuned foundation models, gradient-boosted trees, and MLPs - we find that model rankings shift substantially depending on the scoring rule: models that excel on point-estimate metrics can rank poorly on probabilistic ones, and the top-performing model under one proper scoring rule may rank noticeably lower under another. These results demonstrate that the choice of evaluation metric is not a technicality but a modelling decision - and, for applications where e.g. tail errors are disproportionately costly, a domain-specific requirement with direct consequences for model deployment.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2603.29928,
  title  = {ScoringBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Tabular Foundation Models with Proper Scoring Rules},
  author = {Jonas Landsgesell and Pascal Knoll and Tizian Wenzel},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.29928},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T11:46:35.765Z