English

Scale-free avalanches in the multifractal random walk

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability 2009-11-13 v1 Physics and Society Statistical Finance

Abstract

Avalanches, or Avalanche-like, events are often observed in the dynamical behaviour of many complex systems which span from solar flaring to the Earth's crust dynamics and from traffic flows to financial markets. Self-organized criticality (SOC) is one of the most popular theories able to explain this intermittent charge/discharge behaviour. Despite a large amount of theoretical work, empirical tests for SOC are still in their infancy. In the present paper we address the common problem of revealing SOC from a simple time series without having much information about the underlying system. As a working example we use a modified version of the multifractal random walk originally proposed as a model for the stock market dynamics. The study reveals, despite the lack of the typical ingredients of SOC, an avalanche-like dynamics similar to that of many physical systems. While, on one hand, the results confirm the relevance of cascade models in representing turbulent-like phenomena, on the other, they also raise the question about the current state of reliability of SOC inference from time series analysis.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.0705.4329,
  title  = {Scale-free avalanches in the multifractal random walk},
  author = {M. Bartolozzi},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0705.4329},
  year   = {2009}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-21T08:33:13.074Z