English

Sailing Towards Zero-Shot State Estimation using Foundation Models Combined with a UKF

Systems and Control 2025-09-05 v1 Machine Learning Systems and Control

Abstract

State estimation in control and systems engineering traditionally requires extensive manual system identification or data-collection effort. However, transformer-based foundation models in other domains have reduced data requirements by leveraging pre-trained generalist models. Ultimately, developing zero-shot foundation models of system dynamics could drastically reduce manual deployment effort. While recent work shows that transformer-based end-to-end approaches can achieve zero-shot performance on unseen systems, they are limited to sensor models seen during training. We introduce the foundation model unscented Kalman filter (FM-UKF), which combines a transformer-based model of system dynamics with analytically known sensor models via an UKF, enabling generalization across varying dynamics without retraining for new sensor configurations. We evaluate FM-UKF on a new benchmark of container ship models with complex dynamics, demonstrating a competitive accuracy, effort, and robustness trade-off compared to classical methods with approximate system knowledge and to an end-to-end approach. The benchmark and dataset are open sourced to further support future research in zero-shot state estimation via foundation models.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2509.04213,
  title  = {Sailing Towards Zero-Shot State Estimation using Foundation Models Combined with a UKF},
  author = {Tobin Holtmann and David Stenger and Andres Posada-Moreno and Friedrich Solowjow and Sebastian Trimpe},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.04213},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Accepted for publication at CDC2025

R2 v1 2026-07-01T05:21:08.033Z