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Round-Trip Consistency: Bidirectional Diffusion Models Can Predict Their Own Rollout Errors

Machine Learning 2026-08-01 v1 Machine Learning Computational Physics Plasma Physics

Abstract

Autoregressive models accumulate error over long rollouts, yet at deployment there is no ground truth to measure it against. We train a single conditional latent diffusion model that steps a dynamical system forward or backward in time via a direction flag, and show that this bidirectionality supplies a measurement-free test-time error signal: rolling forward ii steps and then backward ii steps must return the model to its start, so the round-trip discrepancy Ci\mathcal{C}_i is a self-supervised proxy for the unobservable rollout error: no ensembles, no held-out data, no governing equations, for one extra rollout. We validate on compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), an astrophysical turbulent radiative mixing layer, and natural face videos (CelebV-HQ). On held-out MHD trajectories, Ci\mathcal{C}_i ranks rollout error (Spearman 0.910.91-0.980.98 at fixed depth; 0.69±0.160.69 \pm 0.16 within trajectories), and a simple calibrator fit on training rollouts predicts its magnitude to within 1.14×1.14\times (68%68\%) and 1.29×1.29\times (95%95\%) with near-nominal coverage - one nat beyond a depth-only predictor, transferring to all six decoded physical fields. The same signal flags the out-of-distribution Orszag-Tang vortex (AUROC 0.980.98; 1.01.0 by depth 1010) exactly where sampling-dispersion baselines invert, and it cuts incurred error by 15%15\% at 80%80\% coverage - three times the depth-only baseline. Bidirectional training comes at negative cost, beating direction specialists in both directions, and the backward direction doubles as a fast inverse solver. On LE-PDE-UQ's turbulent Navier-Stokes benchmark, a single bidirectional model reaches accuracy within 1.3×1.3\times of their ten-model ensemble at a tenth of the training cost, with the best training-free pixel-level calibration. Round-trip consistency turns reversibility into a practical trust signal for generative models.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2608.00675,
  title  = {Round-Trip Consistency: Bidirectional Diffusion Models Can Predict Their Own Rollout Errors},
  author = {Alexander Scheinker},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2608.00675},
  year   = {2026}
}