English

Robust Control for Marked Point Processes under Transition-Rate Uncertainty

Optimization and Control 2026-07-18 v1 Probability Risk Management

Abstract

We consider a novel robust utility maximisation problem under bounded cumulative transition rate uncertainty within the class of non-Markovian marked point processes on a finite state-space. Utility is maximised over the class of admissible controls, while Nature chooses a worst-case biometric scenario from the class of admissible, path-dependent cumulative transition rates restricted by path-dependent upper and lower bounds. We prove a martingale optimality principle and a novel existence and uniqueness result for a non-standard worst-case backwards stochastic differential equation, which allows us to establish existence and uniqueness of worst-case and best-case prospective reserves of life and health insurance contracts with reserve-dependent payments. Finally, we find an explicit solution of a novel robust consumption-insurance problem with power utility preferences.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2607.16935,
  title  = {Robust Control for Marked Point Processes under Transition-Rate Uncertainty},
  author = {Sascha Desmettre and Philipp C. Hornung},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.16935},
  year   = {2026}
}