English

RepFlow: Representation Enhanced Flow Matching for Causal Effect Estimation

Machine Learning 2026-05-08 v1 Methodology

Abstract

Estimating causal effects from observational data has become increasingly critical in diverse fields including healthcare, economics, and social policy. The fundamental challenge in causal inference arises from the missing counterfactuals and the selection bias. Existing methods are largely limited to point estimates and lack the capacity for distribution modeling. In this work, we propose RepFlow, a novel framework that formulates causal effect estimation as a joint optimization problem integrating representation learning with Conditional Flow Matching (CFM). RepFlow mitigates selection bias by minimizing the entropically regularized Wasserstein distance between treated and control representations. To enhance numerical stability, we further introduce an L2L_2 normalization constraint on latent representations. This balanced representation enables the flow model to accurately capture the distribution of potential outcomes. Extensive experiments across a wide range of benchmarks demonstrate that RepFlow consistently outperforms existing methods in both point and distributional causal effect estimation.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.05890,
  title  = {RepFlow: Representation Enhanced Flow Matching for Causal Effect Estimation},
  author = {Yifei Xie and Jian Huang},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.05890},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T12:54:26.149Z