Regularized Warm-Started Quantum Approximate Optimization and Conditions for Surpassing Classical Solvers on the Max-Cut Problem

Demonstrating quantum heuristics that outperform strong classical solvers on large-scale optimization remains an open challenge. Here we introduce Regularized Warm-Started QAOA (RWS-QAOA), which initializes qubits by minimizing expected energy with a regularizer that penalizes near-bitstring states, preventing QAOA from stalling. We further propose a protocol that yields fixed, instance-independent parameters, enabling RWS-QAOA to operate as a non-variational algorithm in which the quantum circuit parameters are fixed and only a classical warm starting step is instance-dependent. We evaluate RWS-QAOA on the Max-Cut problem for random regular graphs, where this protocol yields a constant-depth quantum circuit, across three complementary settings. First, on Quantinuum's trapped-ion processor, RWS-QAOA outperforms the classical algorithms with the best provable guarantees for Max-Cut on $3$-regular graphs, namely Goemans-Williamson and Halperin-Livnat-Zwick, on $96$-node instances. Second, tensor-network simulations on graphs with up to $N{=}10{,}000$ nodes show that depth-$6$ RWS-QAOA, achieving an average cut fraction of $0.9167$, surpasses the best classical heuristics under matched restrictions (no local-search post-processing and no iterative refinement). Third, we remove these restrictions and benchmark against the strongest unrestricted classical heuristics, including an optimized parallel Burer-Monteiro solver that improves upon the MQLib implementation. Even against this stronger baseline, we project that surface-code RWS-QAOA reaches a quantum-classical runtime crossover below $0.2$ seconds on $3{,}000$-node graphs with fewer than $1.3$ million physical qubits. Our results show that constant-depth quantum circuits combined with a classical warm start have a credible potential to surpass classical solvers on the Max-Cut problem when executed on future quantum computers.