In this paper, we try to predict the winning team of a match in the multiplayer eSports game Dota 2. To address the weaknesses of previous work, we consider more aspects of prior (pre-match) features from individual players' match history, as well as real-time (during-match) features at each minute as the match progresses. We use logistic regression, the proposed Attribute Sequence Model, and their combinations as the prediction models. In a dataset of 78362 matches where 20631 matches contain replay data, our experiments show that adding more aspects of prior features improves accuracy from 58.69% to 71.49%, and introducing real-time features achieves up to 93.73% accuracy when predicting at the 40th minute.
@article{arxiv.1701.03162,
title = {Real-time eSports Match Result Prediction},
author = {Yifan Yang and Tian Qin and Yu-Heng Lei},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1701.03162},
year = {2017}
}