Random Lozenge Waterfall: Dimensional Collapse of Gibbs Measures

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the q-Racah probability measure on lozenge tilings of a hexagon whose side lengths scale linearly with a large parameter $L$, while the parameters $q\in(0,1)$ and $\kappa\in \mathbf{i}\mathbb{R}$ remain fixed. This regime differs fundamentally from the traditional case $q\sim e^{-c/L}\to1$, in which random tilings are locally governed by two-dimensional translation-invariant ergodic Gibbs measures. In the fixed-q regime we uncover a new macroscopic phase, the waterfall (previously only observed experimentally), where the two-dimensional Gibbs structure collapses into a one-dimensional random stepped interface that we call a barcode. We prove a law of large numbers and exponential concentration, showing that the random tilings converge to a deterministic waterfall profile. We further conjecture an explicit correlation kernel of the one-dimensional barcode process arising in the limit. Remarkably, the limit is invariant under shifts by $2\mathbb{Z}$ but not by $\mathbb{Z}$, exhibiting an emergent period-two structure absent from the original weights. Our conjectures are supported by extensive numerical evidence and perfect sampling simulations. The kernel is built from a family of functions orthogonal in both spaces $\ell^{2}(\mathbb{Z})$ and $\ell^{2}(\mathbb{Z}+\frac12)$, that may be of independent interest. Our proofs adapt the spectral projection method of Borodin-Gorin-Rains (arXiv:0905.0679) to the regime with fixed~q. The resulting asymptotic analysis is substantially more involved, and leads to non-self-adjoint operators. We overcome these challenges in the exponential concentration result by a separate argument based on sharp bounds for the ratios of probabilities under the q-Racah orthogonal polynomial ensemble.