Radial Extremality for LRU Caching and the Fill--Holst Conjecture

For the independent reference model with popularity vector $p\in\Delta_N^\circ$, let $H_C(p)$ denote the exact stationary hit rate of an LRU cache of capacity $C$. We prove that, for every $1\le C<N$, the uniform popularity vector is the unique global minimizer of $H_C$ on the interior simplex. More sharply, along every nonconstant segment from the uniform vector to an interior point, the LRU hit rate is strictly increasing. The proof uses the standard exponential-age representation of the stationary LRU cache and gives an explicit positive pair-square formula for the radial derivative. Equivalently, for the move-to-front rule, the stationary search-cost distribution improves strictly in the usual stochastic order along every nonconstant ray away from uniform. This proves the radial restriction of the Fill--Holst Schur-concavity conjecture for move-to-front search-cost tails. In particular, all LRU miss probabilities and all nonconstant nondecreasing stack-depth costs decrease strictly along such rays. The result is radial rather than Schur-convex: full majorization monotonicity for LRU is known to fail, and the proof identifies the special positivity that survives on rays from the uniform vector.