Quarkonium production at the LHC: a data-driven analysis of NRQCD's predictions

While non-relativistic QCD (NRQCD) foresees a variety of elementary quarkonium production mechanisms naturally leading to state-dependent kinematic patterns, the LHC cross sections and polarization measurements reveal a remarkably simple production scenario, independent of the quantum numbers and masses of the quarkonia. Surprisingly, NRQCD is able to accommodate the observed universal scenario, through a series of conspiring cancellations smoothing out its otherwise variegated hierarchy of mechanisms. This seemingly unnatural solution implies that the $\chi_{c1}$ and $\chi_{c2}$ polarizations, not yet measured, are strong and opposite, representing the only potential exception to a remarkably simple picture of quarkonium production. The observation of a large difference between $\chi_{c2}$ and $\chi_{c1}$ polarizations, which cannot be indirectly extracted from existing measurements because they mutually cancel each other in their contribution to the observed J/$\psi$ production, would be a smoking gun signal finally proving the multifaceted but mysteriously elusive structure of NRQCD. On the other hand, the measurement of two similar, small polarizations will urge improved P-wave calculations, if not a substantial revision of the NRQCD hierarchies.