QANTIS: Hardware-Calibrated Sequential POMDP Belief Updates on IBM Heron
Abstract
Autonomous systems under partial observability act on beliefs, not raw sensor events. QANTIS treats the quantum processor as a calibrated belief-update service in that loop: it receives a prior and an observation model, estimates the rare-event evidence term, and returns an ordinary posterior to a classical planner. This paper asks whether that service can be reused across a sequential Tiger POMDP horizon on present IBM Heron hardware without corrupting the planner-facing posterior. We answer with a controlled hardware case study rather than an end-to-end autonomy or wall-clock speedup claim. The study compares no amplification, guarded Grover amplification, and all-step fixed-point amplification on the same trajectory, then checks whether the returned posterior would change the downstream action. All-step FPAA preserves the Tiger posterior across the reported 8-step and 12-step primary runs, and the 20-step and 32-step controls remain inside the same operating band. In every reported decision check, the hardware posterior and the exact Bayes posterior select the same immediate action. Boundary-aware BIQAE stabilizes amplitude estimation near zero and near one, while a rare-event sweep maps the logical sample-complexity envelope for one-in-a-million evidence. The result is an operating envelope for a hardware-calibrated belief-update primitive, not a standalone hardware-advantage claim.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2607.06760,
title = {QANTIS: Hardware-Calibrated Sequential POMDP Belief Updates on IBM Heron},
author = {Bayram Yuksel Eker and Suayb S. Arslan and Ozgur Nazli and Mustafa Serhat Demirgil and Furkan Deligoz},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.06760},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
10 pages, 6 figures