Accurate and interpretable predictions of depression severity are essential for clinical decision support, yet existing models often lack uncertainty estimates and temporal modeling. We propose PTTSD, a Probabilistic Textual Time Series Depression Detection framework that predicts PHQ-8 scores from utterance-level clinical interviews while modeling uncertainty over time. PTTSD includes sequence-to-sequence and sequence-to-one variants, both combining bidirectional LSTMs, self-attention, and residual connections with Gaussian or Student-t output heads trained via negative log-likelihood. Evaluated on E-DAIC and DAIC-WOZ, PTTSD achieves state-of-the-art performance among text-only systems (e.g., MAE = 3.85 on E-DAIC, 3.55 on DAIC) and produces well-calibrated prediction intervals. Ablations confirm the value of attention and probabilistic modeling, while comparisons with MentalBERT establish generality. A three-part calibration analysis and qualitative case studies further highlight the interpretability and clinical relevance of uncertainty-aware forecasting.
@article{arxiv.2511.04476,
title = {Probabilistic Textual Time Series Depression Detection},
author = {Fabian Schmidt and Seyedehmoniba Ravan and Vladimir Vlassov},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.04476},
year = {2025}
}