English

Probabilistic forecasting for sizing in the capacity firming framework

Optimization and Control 2021-09-01 v1 Systems and Control Systems and Control

Abstract

This paper proposes a strategy to size a grid-connected photovoltaic plant coupled with a battery energy storage device within the \textit{capacity firming} specifications of the French Energy Regulatory Commission. In this context, the sizing problem is challenging due to the two-phase engagement control with a day-ahead nomination and an intraday control to minimize deviations from the planning. The two-phase engagement control is modeled with deterministic and stochastic approaches. The optimization problems are formulated as mixed-integer quadratic problems, using a Gaussian copula methodology to generate PV scenarios, to approximate the mixed-integer non-linear problem of the capacity firming. Then, a grid search is conducted to approximate the optimal sizing for a given selling price using both the deterministic and stochastic approaches. The case study is composed of PV production monitored on-site at the Li\`ege University (ULi\`ege), Belgium.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2106.02323,
  title  = {Probabilistic forecasting for sizing in the capacity firming framework},
  author = {Jonathan Dumas and Bertrand Cornélusse and Xavier Fettweis and Antonello Giannitrapani and Simone Paoletti and Antonio Vicino},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2106.02323},
  year   = {2021}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-24T02:49:47.061Z