English

Prediction of dynamical systems from time-delayed measurements with self-intersections

Dynamical Systems 2024-10-16 v2 Mathematical Physics math.MP

Abstract

In the context of predicting the behaviour of chaotic systems, Schroer, Sauer, Ott and Yorke conjectured in 1998 that if a dynamical system defined by a smooth diffeomorphism TT of a Riemannian manifold XX admits an attractor with a natural measure μ\mu of information dimension smaller than kk, then kk time-delayed measurements of a one-dimensional observable hh are generically sufficient for μ\mu-almost sure prediction of future measurements of hh. In a previous paper we established this conjecture in the setup of injective Lipschitz transformations TT of a compact set XX in Euclidean space with an ergodic TT-invariant Borel probability measure μ\mu. In this paper we prove the conjecture for all (also non-invertible) Lipschitz systems on compact sets with an arbitrary Borel probability measure, and establish an upper bound for the decay rate of the measure of the set of points where the prediction is subpar. This partially confirms a second conjecture by Schroer, Sauer, Ott and Yorke related to empirical prediction algorithms as well as algorithms estimating the dimension and number of required delayed measurements (the so-called embedding dimension) of an observed system. We also prove general time-delay prediction theorems for locally Lipschitz or H\"older systems on Borel sets in Euclidean space.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2212.13509,
  title  = {Prediction of dynamical systems from time-delayed measurements with self-intersections},
  author = {Krzysztof Barański and Yonatan Gutman and Adam Śpiewak},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2212.13509},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

Minor corrections. Final author's version

R2 v1 2026-06-28T07:53:59.577Z