Positive autocorrelation at unit lag for stationary random walk Metropolis-Hastings in ${\mathbb R}^d$
Abstract
It is often asserted in the literature that one should expect positive autocorrelation for random walk Metropolis-Hastings (RWMH), especially if the typical proposal step-size is small relative to the variability in the target density. In this paper, we consider a stationary RWMH chain taking values in -dimensional Euclidean space and (subject only to the existence of densities with respect to Lebesgue measure) with general target distribution having finite second moment and general proposal random walk step-distribution. We prove, for any nonzero vector , strict positivity of the autocorrelation function at unit lag for the stochastic process , that is, and we establish the same result, but with weak inequality (which can in some cases be equality) when the state space for is changed to the integer grid . Further, for we establish the sharp lower bound on autocorrelation when we assume both that (i) the target density is spherically symmetric and unimodal in the specific sense that for some nonincreasing function on and that (ii) the proposal step-density is symmetric about . We study the autocorrelation indirectly, by considering the incremental variance function (or incremental second-moment function) at unit lag. The same approach allows us also for to upper-bound the incremental th-absolute-moment function at unit lag. We give also closely related inequalities for the total variation distance between two distributions on differing only by a location shift.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2601.19323,
title = {Positive autocorrelation at unit lag for stationary random walk Metropolis-Hastings in ${\mathbb R}^d$},
author = {James Allen Fill and Svante Janson},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.19323},
year = {2026}
}
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52 pages