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Positive autocorrelation at unit lag for stationary random walk Metropolis-Hastings in ${\mathbb R}^d$

Probability 2026-01-28 v1 Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

It is often asserted in the literature that one should expect positive autocorrelation for random walk Metropolis-Hastings (RWMH), especially if the typical proposal step-size is small relative to the variability in the target density. In this paper, we consider a stationary RWMH chain X{\bf X} taking values in dd-dimensional Euclidean space and (subject only to the existence of densities with respect to Lebesgue measure) with general target distribution having finite second moment and general proposal random walk step-distribution. We prove, for any nonzero vector c{\bf c}, strict positivity of the autocorrelation function at unit lag for the stochastic process c,X\langle{\bf c},{\bf X}\rangle, that is, Corr(c,X0,c,X1)>0,{\operatorname{Corr}}(\langle{\bf c},{\bf X}_0\rangle,\langle{\bf c},{\bf X}_1\rangle)>0, and we establish the same result, but with weak inequality (which can in some cases be equality) when the state space for X{\bf X} is changed to the integer grid Zd{\mathbb Z}^d. Further, for c0{\bf c}\neq{\bf 0} we establish the sharp lower bound Corr(c,X0,c,X1)>19{\operatorname{Corr}}(\langle{\bf c},{\bf X}_0\rangle,\langle{\bf c},{\bf X}_1\rangle)>\tfrac19 on autocorrelation when we assume both that (i) the target density π\pi is spherically symmetric and unimodal in the specific sense that π(x)=π^(x)\pi({\bf x})=\hat{\pi}(\|{\bf x}\|) for some nonincreasing function π^\hat{\pi} on [0,)[0,\infty) and that (ii) the proposal step-density is symmetric about 0{\bf 0}. We study the autocorrelation indirectly, by considering the incremental variance function (or incremental second-moment function) at unit lag. The same approach allows us also for r[2,)r\in[2,\infty) to upper-bound the incremental rrth-absolute-moment function at unit lag. We give also closely related inequalities for the total variation distance between two distributions on Rd{\mathbb R}^d differing only by a location shift.

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Cite

@article{arxiv.2601.19323,
  title  = {Positive autocorrelation at unit lag for stationary random walk Metropolis-Hastings in ${\mathbb R}^d$},
  author = {James Allen Fill and Svante Janson},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.19323},
  year   = {2026}
}

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52 pages