pMSSM versus complete models and the excellent prospects for top-squark discovery at HL-LHC

LHC sparticle search limits are usually performed within the context of simplified models and subsequently interpreted within the 19 parameter phenomenological MSSM (pMSSM) as to how many models avoid search limits for a particular sparticle mass, often including WIMP dark matter constraints. We provide a critical discussion of this procedure and how it can go wrong due to the introduction of new prejudices. By ameliorating these conditions, one is pushed into the more plausible four extra parameter non-universal Higgs model (NUHM4). Implementing a decoupling/quasi-degeneracy solution to the SUSY flavor and CP problems leads to first/second generation sfermions in the tens-of-TeV range. In this case, the natural solutions typically contain top-squarks in the 1-2 TeV range which are accessible to high-lumi LHC (HL-LHC) searches. This search channel, along with higgsino and wino pair production, may allow a nearly complete scan of natural/plausible parameter space by HL-LHC.