English

Pink Noise in Economic Time Series from Synchronization and Amplitude Demodulation

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems 2026-05-19 v1

Abstract

Pink noise, characterized by a power spectral density S(ω)ωβS(\omega)\propto\omega^{\beta} with β1\beta\simeq -1, appears in economic indices as well as in many natural systems. We summarize a unified mesoscopic interpretation in which pink spectra arise from repeated synchronization, amplitude modulation, and demodulation. In economic time series, we identify two kinds of pink-noise behavior: one that appears in the raw data (property A), and another that appears only after detrending and demodulation (property B). A stochastic Kuramoto model provides a minimal dynamical model of repeated synchronization and desynchronization among many economic circulations. It produces approximate 1/f1/f spectra over a broad coupling--system-size domain and gives variance--mean scaling, Taylor's law. The same amplitude-modulation/demodulation mechanism also gives a compact explanation of pink spectra in music, earthquakes, variable stars, solar flares, and black-hole accretion systems. Pink noise is therefore interpreted not merely as a statistical regularity, but as a diagnostic of slowly modulated collective coherence in complex flow systems.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.17490,
  title  = {Pink Noise in Economic Time Series from Synchronization and Amplitude Demodulation},
  author = {Masahiro Morikawa and Yokoh Morikawa and Akika Nakamichi},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.17490},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

12 pages, 5 figures