English

PI -- Multimodal Planetary Defense

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics 2025-06-27 v16 Physics and Society Space Physics

Abstract

We present a practical and effective method of planetary defense that allows for extremely short mitigation time scales if required as well as long time scale mitigation. This one system allows for virtually any required defense mode. In general, it uses much less launch mass with vastly shorter required response time than classical deflection techniques The method uses an array of small hypervelocity kinetic penetrators that pulverize and disassemble an asteroid or small comet. This approach works in both long warning time, as well as in short warning scenarios with intercepts of minutes to days before impact. In longer time intercept scenarios, the disassembled asteroid fragments largely miss the Earth. In short intercept scenarios, the asteroid fragments of maximum \sim10-meter diameter allow the Earth's atmosphere to act as a "beam dump" with fragment burn up and/or air burst, with the primary channel of energy going into spatially and temporally de-correlated shock waves. The effectiveness of the approach depends on the intercept time and size of the asteroid but allows for effective defense against asteroids in the 20-1000m diameter class and could virtually eliminate the threat. A 20m diameter asteroid (\sim0.5Mt, similar to Chelyabinsk) can be mitigated with a 100s prior to impact intercept with a 10m/s disruption. With ~1m/s internal disruption, a 5 hour prior to impact intercept of a 50m diameter asteroid (\sim10Mt yield, similar to Tunguska), a 1 day prior to impact intercept of 100m diameter asteroid (\sim100Mt yield), a 20 day prior to impact intercept of Apophis (\sim370m diameter, \sim4Gt yield). The use of active (explosive) penetrators including nuclear allows the same system to mitigate extremely large threats. A "single launcher" solution to planetary defense using existing launch vehicles that achieve positive C3 becomes a viable option.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2110.07559,
  title  = {PI -- Multimodal Planetary Defense},
  author = {Philip Lubin},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.07559},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

194 pages, 148 figures. Published in Advances in Space Research (ASR) 10-22; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117722009395

R2 v1 2026-06-24T06:53:45.041Z