Patch-Effect Graph Kernels for LLM Interpretability

Mechanistic interpretability aims to reverse-engineer transformer computations by identifying causal circuits through activation patching. However, scaling these interventions across diverse prompts and task families produces high-dimensional, unstructured datasets that are difficult to compare systematically. We propose a framework that reframes mechanistic analysis as a graph machine-learning problem by representing activation-patching profiles as patch-effect graphs over model components. We introduce three graph-construction methods: direct-influence via causal mediation, partial-correlation, and co-influence and apply graph kernels to analyze the resulting structures. Evaluating this approach on GPT-2 Small using Indirect Object Identification (IOI) and related tasks, we find that patch-effect graphs preserve discriminative structural signals. Specifically, localized edge-slot features provide higher classification accuracy than global graph-shape descriptors. A screened paired-patching validation suggests that CI and PC selected candidate edges correspond to stronger activation-influence effects than random or low-rank candidates. Crucially, by evaluating these representations against rigorous prompt-only and raw patch-effect controls, we make the evidential scope of the benchmark explicit: graph features compress structured patching signal, while raw tensors and surface cues define strong baselines that any circuit-level claim should address. Ultimately, our framework provides a compression and evaluation pipeline for comparing patching-derived structures under controlled baselines, separating robust slice-discriminative evidence from stronger task-general causal-circuit claims.