Parameter inference for partially observed branching processes

Simone Baldassarri; Michel Mandjes; Jiesen Wang

Parameter inference for partially observed branching processes

Statistics Theory 2026-07-09 v1 Probability

Authors: Simone Baldassarri , Michel Mandjes , Jiesen Wang

Abstract

In this paper, we study an age-dependent branching process. In the simplest setting, the population is divided into two age groups, namely juveniles and adults. Our objective is to estimate the model parameters using observations of the total population size only (i.e., juveniles plus adults). Focusing on the ergodic regime of the model, we introduce a method-of-moments estimator and establish its asymptotic normality. Several extensions are discussed, including models with more than two age groups.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2607.08157,
  title  = {Parameter inference for partially observed branching processes},
  author = {Simone Baldassarri and Michel Mandjes and Jiesen Wang},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.08157},
  year   = {2026}
}