Orientation in Poisson Cluster Processes via Imaginary Bispectra
Probability
2026-05-14 v1 Statistics Theory
Statistics Theory
Abstract
We study what remains detectable about one-sided Poisson cluster processes after cluster orientation is erased. We construct matched reversible cluster nulls preserving intensity and the full Bartlett spectrum, showing that second-order structure alone need not identify temporal direction. For stationary Poisson branching clusters, we derive the Fourier--Stieltjes transform of the reduced third cumulant and show that, in the third-cumulant regime, a nonzero imaginary factorial bispectrum certifies orientation. We also give explicit orientation-erased nulls, reversible spectral matches for monotone Hawkes kernels, and finite-window third-order orientation contrasts.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2605.13004,
title = {Orientation in Poisson Cluster Processes via Imaginary Bispectra},
author = {Conor Kresin and Yifu Tang and Boris Baeumer and Ting Wang},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.13004},
year = {2026}
}