English

Orientation in Poisson Cluster Processes via Imaginary Bispectra

Probability 2026-05-14 v1 Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

We study what remains detectable about one-sided Poisson cluster processes after cluster orientation is erased. We construct matched reversible cluster nulls preserving intensity and the full Bartlett spectrum, showing that second-order structure alone need not identify temporal direction. For stationary Poisson branching clusters, we derive the Fourier--Stieltjes transform of the reduced third cumulant and show that, in the L1L^1 third-cumulant regime, a nonzero imaginary factorial bispectrum certifies orientation. We also give explicit orientation-erased nulls, reversible spectral matches for monotone Hawkes kernels, and finite-window third-order orientation contrasts.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.13004,
  title  = {Orientation in Poisson Cluster Processes via Imaginary Bispectra},
  author = {Conor Kresin and Yifu Tang and Boris Baeumer and Ting Wang},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.13004},
  year   = {2026}
}