Option pricing, Bayes risks and Applications
Abstract
A statistical decision problem is hidden in the core of option pricing. A simple form for the price C of a European call option is obtained via the minimum Bayes risk, R_B, of a 2-parameter estimation problem, thus justifying calling C Bayes (B-)price. The result provides new insight in option pricing, among others obtaining C for some stock-price models using the underlying probability instead of the risk neutral probability and giving R_B an economic interpretation. When logarithmic stock prices follow Brownian motion, discrete normal mixture and hyperbolic Levy motion the obtained B-prices are "fair" prices. A new expression for the price of American call option is also obtained and statistical modeling of R_B can be used when pricing European and American call options.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1304.5156,
title = {Option pricing, Bayes risks and Applications},
author = {Yannis G. Yatracos},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1304.5156},
year = {2013}
}