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On the symmetry of evidential support

Other Statistics 2026-04-01 v1

Abstract

For events AA and BB, we have P(AB)>P(A¬B)P(BA)>P(B¬A) \mathbb{P}(A\mid B) > \mathbb{P}(A\mid \neg B) \qquad\Longleftrightarrow\qquad \mathbb{P}(B\mid A) > \mathbb{P}(B\mid \neg A) whenever all four quantities are defined. In other words, BB is evidence for AA if and only if AA is evidence for BB. This note gives seven different proofs of this fact -- by cross-multiplication, covariance, coupling parameters, odds ratios, pointwise mutual information, combinatorial double counting, and mixed discrete derivatives -- and develops a surrounding web of interpretations. Once the marginals P(A)\mathbb{P}(A) and P(B)\mathbb{P}(B) are fixed, a 2×22\times 2 table has only one degree of freedom, so every scalar notion of positive association must be governed by the same signed parameter.

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Cite

@article{arxiv.2603.29786,
  title  = {On the symmetry of evidential support},
  author = {Grant Molnar},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.29786},
  year   = {2026}
}

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20 pages