On the number of H-free hypergraphs

Two central problems in extremal combinatorics are concerned with estimating the number $ex(n,H)$, the size of the largest $H$-free hypergraph on $n$ vertices, and the number $forb(n,H)$ of $H$-free hypergraph on $n$ vertices. While it is known that $forb(n,H)=2^{(1+o(1))ex(n,H)}$ for $k$-uniform hypergraphs that are not $k$-partite, estimates for hypergraphs that are $k$-partite (or degenerate) are not nearly as tight. In a recent breakthrough, Ferber, McKinley, and Samotij proved that for many degenerate hypergraphs $H$, $forb(n, H) = 2^{O(ex(n,H))}$. However, there are few known instances of degenerate hypergraphs $H$ for which $forb(n,H)=2^{(1+o(1))ex(n,H)}$ holds. In this paper, we show that $forb(n,H)=2^{(1+o(1))ex(n,H)}$ holds for a wide class of degenerate hypergraphs known as $2$-contractible hypertrees. This is the first known infinite family of degenerate hypergraphs $H$ for which $forb(n,H)=2^{(1+o(1))ex(n,H)}$ holds. As a corollary of our main results, we obtain a surprisingly sharp estimate of $forb(n,C^{(k)}_\ell)=2^{(\lfloor\frac{\ell-1}{2}\rfloor+o(1))\binom{n}{k-1}}$ for the $k$-uniform linear $\ell$-cycle, for all pairs $k\geq 5, \ell\geq 3$, thus settling a question of Balogh, Narayanan, and Skokan affirmatively for all $k\geq 5, \ell\geq 3$. Our methods also lead to some related sharp results on the corresponding random Turan problem. As a key ingredient of our proofs, we develop a novel supersaturation variant of the delta systems method for set systems, which may be of independent interest.