On the Limits of HARQ Prediction for Short Deterministic Codes with Error Detection in Memoryless Channels (Extended Version with Proofs)

We provide a mathematical framework to analyze the limits of Hybrid Automatic Repeat reQuest (HARQ) and derive analytical expressions for the most powerful test for estimating the decodability under maximum-likelihood decoding and $t$-error decoding. Furthermore, we numerically approximate the most powerful test for sum-product decoding. We compare the performance of previously studied HARQ prediction schemes and show that none of the state-of-the-art HARQ prediction is most powerful to estimate the decodability of a partially received signal vector under maximum-likelihood decoding and sum-product decoding. Furthermore, we demonstrate that decoding in general is suboptimal for predicting the decodability.