On the arithmetic Siegel--Weil formula for GSpin Shimura varieties

We formulate and prove a local arithmetic Siegel--Weil formula for GSpin Rapoport--Zink spaces, which is a precise identity between the arithmetic intersection numbers of special cycles on GSpin Rapoport--Zink spaces and the derivatives of local representation densities of quadratic forms. As a first application, we prove a semi-global arithmetic Siegel--Weil formula as conjectured by Kudla, which relates the arithmetic intersection numbers of special cycles on GSpin Shimura varieties at a place of good reduction and the central derivatives of nonsingular Fourier coefficients of incoherent Siegel Eisenstein series.