On random stable partitions

The stable roommates problem does not necessarily have a solution, i.e. a stable matching. We had found that, for the uniformly random instance, the expected number of solutions converges to $e^{1/2}$ as $n$, the number of members, grows, and with Rob Irving we proved that the limiting probability of solvability is $e^{1/2}/2$, at most. Stephan Mertens's extensive numerics compelled him to conjecture that this probability is of order $n^{-1/4}$. Jimmy Tan introduced a notion of a stable cyclic partition, and proved existence of such a partition for every system of members' preferences, discovering that presence of odd cycles in a stable partition is equivalent to absence of a stable matching. In this paper we show that the expected number of stable partitions with odd cycles grows as $n^{1/4}$. However the standard deviation of that number is of order $n^{3/8}\gg n^{1/4}$, too large to conclude that the odd cycles exist with high probability (whp). Still, as a byproduct, we show that whp the fraction of members with more than one stable "predecessor" is of order $n^{-1/4}$. Furthermore, whp the average rank of a predecessor in every stable partition is of order $n^{1/2}$. The likely size of the largest stable matching is $n/2-O(n^{1/4+o(1)})$, and the likely number of pairs of unmatched members blocking the optimal complete matching is $O(n^{3/4+o(1)})$.