English

No missing flare in OJ~287

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena 2024-11-05 v1

Abstract

The quasar OJ~287 has shown large flares since 1888, following a pattern that arises in a supermassive black hole binary when the secondary hits the accretion disk of the primary, and releases a hot bubble of gas at every disk crossing. A complete mathematical solution of the flare sequence produced a list of future flares, the latest happening in the summer of 2022. Here I look into the origin of the idea that the lack of seeing the 2022 flare is a theoretical problem. During the summer OJ~287 cannot be observed by ground-based optical telescopes. In a paper published in 2021, ahead of the 2022 observing campaign, this was clearly stated. The often repeated claim that there is a "missing flare problem", is a misunderstanding, as no detection was possible with the current instrumentation.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2411.00908,
  title  = {No missing flare in OJ~287},
  author = {Mauri J. Valtonen},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2411.00908},
  year   = {2024}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-28T19:44:48.896Z