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Nearly unstable family of stochastic processes given by stochastic differential equations with time delay

Statistics Theory 2025-01-28 v1 Statistics Theory

Abstract

Let aa be a finite signed measure on [r,0][-r, 0] with r(0,)r \in (0, \infty). Consider a stochastic process (X(ϑ)(t))t[r,)(X^{(\vartheta)}(t))_{t\in[-r,\infty)} given by a linear stochastic delay differential equation dX(ϑ)(t)=ϑ[r,0]X(ϑ)(t+u)a(du)dt+dW(t),t0, \mathrm{d} X^{(\vartheta)}(t) = \vartheta \int_{[-r,0]} X^{(\vartheta)}(t + u) \, a(\mathrm{d} u) \, \mathrm{d} t + \mathrm{d} W(t) , \qquad t \ge 0, where ϑR\vartheta \in \mathbb{R} is a parameter and (W(t))t0(W(t))_{t\ge 0} is a standard Wiener process. Consider a point ϑR\vartheta \in \mathbb{R}, where this model is unstable in the sense that it is locally asymptotically Brownian functional with certain scalings (rϑ,T)T(0,)(r_{\vartheta,T})_{T\in(0,\infty)} satisfying rϑ,T0r_{\vartheta,T} \to 0 as TT \to \infty. A family {(X(ϑT)(t))t[r,T]:T(0,)}\{(X^{(\vartheta_T)}(t))_{t\in[-r,T]} : T \in (0, \infty)\} is said to be nearly unstable as TT \to \infty if ϑTϑ\vartheta_T \to \vartheta as TT \to \infty. For every αR\alpha \in \mathbb{R}, we prove convergence of the likelihood ratio processes of the nearly unstable families {(X(ϑ+α rϑ,T)(t))t[r,T]:T(0,)}\{(X^{(\vartheta+\alpha \ r_{\vartheta,T})}(t))_{t\in[-r,T]}: T \in (0, \infty)\} as TT \to \infty. As a consequence, we obtain weak convergence of the maximum likelihood estimator α^T\hat{\alpha}_T of α\alpha based on the observations (X(ϑ+α rϑ,T)(t))t[r,T](X^{(\vartheta+\alpha \ r_{\vartheta,T})}(t))_{t\in[-r,T]} as TT \to \infty. It turns out that the limit distribution of α^T\hat{\alpha}_T as TT \to \infty can be represented as the maximum likelihood estimator of a parameter of a process satisfying a stochastic differential equation without time delay.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1910.07816,
  title  = {Nearly unstable family of stochastic processes given by stochastic differential equations with time delay},
  author = {János Marcell Benke and Gyula Pap},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1910.07816},
  year   = {2025}
}

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15 pages