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Myopic Optimality: why reinforcement learning portfolio management strategies lose money

Trading and Market Microstructure 2025-09-17 v1 Optimization and Control Probability Portfolio Management Risk Management

Abstract

Myopic optimization (MO) outperforms reinforcement learning (RL) in portfolio management: RL yields lower or negative returns, higher variance, larger costs, heavier CVaR, lower profitability, and greater model risk. We model execution/liquidation frictions with mark-to-market accounting. Using Malliavin calculus (Clark-Ocone/BEL), we derive policy gradients and risk shadow price, unifying HJB and KKT. This gives dual gap and convergence results: geometric MO vs. RL floors. We quantify phantom profit in RL via Malliavin policy-gradient contamination analysis and define a control-affects-dynamics (CAD) premium of RL indicating plausibly positive.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2509.12764,
  title  = {Myopic Optimality: why reinforcement learning portfolio management strategies lose money},
  author = {Yuming Ma},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.12764},
  year   = {2025}
}

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43 pages