Modelling phenology using ordered categorical generalized additive models
Methodology
2025-08-12 v1 Quantitative Methods
Abstract
One form of data collected in ecology is phenological, describing the timing of life stages. It can be tempting to analyze such data using a continuous distribution or to model individual transitions via probit/logit models. Such simplifications can lead to incorrect inference in various ways, all of which stem from ignoring the natural structure of the data. This paper presents a flexible approach to modelling ordered categorical data using the popular R package `mgcv`. An example analysis of saxifrage phenology in Greenland including useful plots, model checking and derived quantities is included.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2508.07789,
title = {Modelling phenology using ordered categorical generalized additive models},
author = {David L Miller},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.07789},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
https://gitlab.bioss.ac.uk/dmiller/ocat-paper for source