English

Modelling pairs of Poissons and binomials with negative correlation

Methodology 2026-05-19 v1 Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

Suppose f1(x)f_1(x) and f2(y)f_2(y) are given marginals for pairs (x,y)(x,y). I consider the construction f1(x)f2(y){1+αh1(x)h2(y)}f_1(x)f_2(y)\{ 1+\alpha h_1(x)h_2(y) \}, where h1h_1 and h2h_2 are seen as bounded adjustment functions, normalised to have means zero under f1f_1 and f2f_2. This defines a bivariate distribution for (X,Y)(X,Y) with the specified marginal densities f1f_1 and f2f_2, with an interval of permissible values of α\alpha, both positive and negative; in particular, independence corresponds to an innter point in the adjustments parameter region. Applications to bivariate Poisson distributions, allowing both positive and negative correlation, are discussed. As illustration I provide a more accurate and extended analysis of a Poisson pairs dataset, pertaining to competing seeds and plants, for n=958n=958 plots of soil, earlier analysed in the well-cited paper Lakshminarayana, Pandit, Rao, Srinivasa (1999). The general apparatus is also shown to work for negatively correlated binomials. Those methods are illustrated in a meta-analysis framework for two-by-two tables across different studies, pertaining to the Audit-C screening questionnaire for alcohol use disorders, where again negative correlation is demonstrated, between XX, the number of correct `yes', and YY, the number of correct `no'.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.17585,
  title  = {Modelling pairs of Poissons and binomials with negative correlation},
  author = {Nils Lid Hjort},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.17585},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

14 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables; Statistical Research Report, Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, 17 May 2026; submitted for publication