English

Modeling Stock Returns and Volatility Using Bivariate Gamma Generalized Laplace Law

Methodology 2026-05-04 v1 Probability Statistics Theory Statistical Finance Statistics Theory

Abstract

We consider a generalization of the variance-gamma (generalized asymmetric Laplace) distribution, defined as a normal mean - variance mixture with a gamma mixing distribution. While this model is typically studied in the univariate setting, we assume that the gamma mixing variable is observed alongside the primary variable, resulting in a bivariate framework. In this setting, maximum likelihood estimation becomes significantly simpler than in the standard univariate case, reducing to a form of classical linear regression. We derive explicit expressions for the resulting estimators. For certain parameter configurations, the estimators exhibit nonstandard convergence rates, exceeding the usual square-root rate. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of this model in financial contexts by analyzing stock index returns and associated volatility for several major indices.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.00196,
  title  = {Modeling Stock Returns and Volatility Using Bivariate Gamma Generalized Laplace Law},
  author = {Tomasz J. Kozubowski and Andrey Sarantsev and James A. Spiker},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.00196},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

25 pages, 2 figures. Keywords: Financial modeling, Generalized Laplace distribution, Maximum likelihood estimation, Normal mean-variance mixture, Variance-gamma distribution

R2 v1 2026-07-01T12:44:28.833Z