Modeling page-view dynamics on Wikipedia
Computers and Society
2013-09-12 v2 Social and Information Networks
Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Physics and Society
Abstract
We introduce a model for predicting page-view dynamics of promoted content. The regularity of the content promotion process on Wikipedia provides excellent experimental conditions which favour detailed modelling. We show that the popularity of an article featured on Wikipedia's main page decays exponentially in time if the circadian cycles of the users are taken into account. Our model can be explained as the result of individual Poisson processes and is validated through empirical measurements. It provides a simpler explanation for the evolution of content popularity than previous studies.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1212.5943,
title = {Modeling page-view dynamics on Wikipedia},
author = {Marijn ten Thij and Yana Volkovich and David Laniado and Andreas Kaltenbrunner},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1212.5943},
year = {2013}
}
Comments
6 pages, 13 figures Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems (ECCS 2013)