Modeling and presentation of vaccination coverage estimates using data from household surveys
Abstract
It is becoming increasingly popular to produce high-resolution maps of vaccination coverage by fitting Bayesian geostatistical models to data from household surveys. Often, the surveys adopt a stratified cluster sampling design. We discuss a number of crucial choices with respect to two key aspects of the map production process: the acknowledgment of the survey design in modeling, and the appropriate presentation of estimates and their uncertainties. Specifically, we consider the importance of accounting for survey stratification and cluster-level non-spatial excess variation in survey outcomes when fitting geostatistical models. We also discuss the trade-off between the geographical scale and precision of model-based estimates, and demonstrate visualization methods for mapping and ranking that emphasize the probabilistic interpretation of results. A novel approach to coverage map presentation is proposed to allow comparison and control of the overall map uncertainty level. We use measles vaccination coverage in Nigeria as a motivating example and illustrate the different issues using data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2004.03127,
title = {Modeling and presentation of vaccination coverage estimates using data from household surveys},
author = {Tracy Qi Dong and Jon Wakefield},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.03127},
year = {2023}
}